The Insight by Lateef Adewole
“On the march again, looking for Mr. President…” This is the start of one of the jingles of the presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the late Chief MKO Abiola, as we moved towards 1993 presidential election. It was household song, among many others, because of how much the people loved him. That was another great president Nigeria never had, after Chief Obafemi Awolowo could not become the president of Nigeria.
Today, we are on the same march towards another elections in 2023, looking for Mr. President, as well as all other political office holders. By now, serious parties have all chosen their candidates, especially the presidential. The controversial placeholders in few others have also been replaced by substantive vice presidential candidates. Senator Kashim Shettima is for APC, Senator Yusuf Baba-Hamed for Labour Party and Archbishop Isaac Idahosa for NNPP. PDP already chose Senator Ifeanyi Okowa as their own.
One recurring question I have been asked is what my opinion about 2023 presidential election is? What do I think might happen and the chances of each candidate? Although, in my previous articles, I must have written about this, but not categorically. One thing is that, we are not God and we do not know tomorrow. So, no one can say with certainty as to what will happen. Every writer or analyst only tries to speculate based on reality on ground. It is still too early but such analysis can only be based on current situation. Many things can change before February 2023.
Politicians and members of each political party tend to be overly optimistic about their chances at elections. Everyone of them believes they will win. People like me, who try to look at each party, candidate and their chances based on realities on ground, we try to be as dispassionate and as objective as possible, despite our own biases too. As far as I am concerned, the parties and candidates in contention are Bola Tinubu of APC, Atiku Abubakar of PDP, Peter Obi of Labour Party and Musa Kwakwanso of NNPP. Many others are only there to make up the numbers.
So, among these, who is likely to trump others? No one can be definitive about it. As at today, if the hype is a determinant of the likely winner, Peter Obi will be our president in 2023. There is so much excitement among the youths, especially from the southern Nigeria as to how he is the “messiah” they were waiting for. They have been nicknamed “OBIdients”. They dominate discussion on social media so much that they have started exuding negative energies.
Most of these supporters are becoming intolerant. They don’t want to listen to any dissenting voice. They cyberbully anyone who disagrees with them and even threaten such person sometimes. It has got so bad that the presidential candidate himself had to caution them in a tweet from him recently. All these put together started to get me worried when I remember 2011 presidential election and what happened thereafter. I am beginning to see a similar trait and I wondered if it’s not déjà vu!
I watched a video in circulation on social media where a boy displayed gun and threatened anyone who plans to vote for another candidate apart from Obi. He advised that such persons should not bother to come out. When supporters are becoming so audacious like that, not even hiding their faces, then, it calls for concern. Why do I worry?
Everytime discussion as to winning any election at all, not to talk of the presidential, and the issue of structure come up as one of critical necessities to win, the OBIdients are quick to dismiss it, claiming structure means nothing. Being popular among a segment of the society and majorly in a section of the country, is considered to be enough. However, anyone who has been involved in politics or who has followed it over the years would have realised that “ariwo ko ni music”. Structure is critical since we are yet to have independent candidacy. It takes more than popularity and hailing by the people to win elections. It is mathematical.
Why didn’t General Muhammadu Buhari win his presidential elections on three attempts before 2015? He has always been very popular with cult followership across the northern Nigeria. It was due to lack of adequate, effective and efficient political structure that could deliver the polls at a national level. That was why he lost on those three occasions. He was only or majorly popular in a section of the country, Northern region and among the masses in particular. He was seen as one of them and nicknamed “Maigaskia”. He is considered not corrupt and incorruptible. Well, we now know better.
By his third attempt in 2011, after he had parted ways with his previous parties, APP and ANPP, on which platforms he contested the first and second time, he decided to form a new party. In just six months to the 2011 presidential election, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) was adopted by him. This was a party synonymous with Buhari. The mega bulks, moneybag politicians were not on hand to dole out cash. The party was run on lean budget and survived on the goodwill of General Buhari. That was how they went into the election with Buhari as the sole aspirant and eventual candidate. Almost everything about CPC was woven around Buhari.
I am seeing a similar trend in Obi and Labour Party. Actually, Labour Party has structure but weak and does not cover the whole country. In the past, they had flashes of electoral victory every now and then. Comrade Adams Oshiomole started on the platform to contest for the governorship of Edo in 2008, before his alliance with Tinubu’s Action Congress (AC), the platform with which he won the election. Former Governor Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo state won on Labour Party platform too, with the support of Tinubu also. But that was the far they could go. Nothing at the national level.
With the coming of Peter Obi to the party as their presidential candidate, the party has been on fire (literally). The popularity has soared and the membership and followership have skyrocketed. Many previously non-commited potential voters have been swayed to join the bandwagon. It is called “Obi-tsunami”. Right now, no one can tell Obidients that Peter Obi might not win the presidential election in 2023. They don’t want to hear it.
Back to Buhari, CPC and 2011, we went into the election, and Buhari’s CPC did great. At the last count, he polled 12,214,853 (31.97%) votes. Sadly, that was not enough to send him to Aso Rock. In fact, that was far from the winner’s votes of 22,495,187 (58.87%), by the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. The hell was let loose! The Buharists couldn’t phantom how and why their “demigod” didn’t win that election. They couldn’t believe or agree with it. What gave them such impression was what I didn’t know.
By the time the results were announced and the winner declared, many parts across Northern Nigeria were already consumed in conflagration. Riots broke out. His northern supporters went wild, burning, maiming and killing. In the process, about 50 people died, including 9 corps members who were serving their fatherland and also worked as adhoc staff of INEC for the elections. They were murdered in cold blood. Many houses and businesses were burnt down. As a result, curfew was declared for many days in some states. I was in the heat of it all because I was working and living in Kaduna at the time. The crisis engulfed the state as well.
I can remember how we were locked inside our houses, without foods as markets, banks, offices, etc, were closed, money was of little use. At times like that, one realised the importance of peace and freedom. It took the deployment of the military for peace to be restored. That’s the kind of ruinous and dastardly experiences that political fanaticism could cause. And now, I am seeing similar traits in the ways and manners many Obidients are carrying on with the promotion of their candidate, Peter Obi. Bullying, insulting, attacking, cursing and even threatening with death is not the way to go and should be nipped in the bud. It is such little beginnings that usually metamorphosed to monsterous ends, that could eventually consume the country. They need to be counselled to desist from such.
It is majority in this Obidient movement who used to support PDP. In 2019, they supported it’s presidential candidate Atiku, from where they became “Atikulates”, but non-violent. Unfortunately, some people who used to feed their egos then in the opposition PDP, with their criticism of the current administration and President Buhari, but still remained Atikulate now while their “goons” have decamped to become Obidients, are now at the receiving ends of their vile attacks. One of such persons is Reno Omokri who has been crying out that he and his family members are being threatened by Obidients. Like the saying goes; “those who rode on the back of a tiger will end up in its belle”. The monsters that Reno was breeding over the years are turning around to haunt him.
This mass movement of loyal supporters from PDP to Peter Obi (not to Labour Party per se) is a big minus to the fortunes of Atiku and PDP as they go into the presidential election next year. It has eroded a substantial support base. They can only bank on a sizeable votes from the South-South since Okowa is from there. However, to make any meaningful impact down south, the internal squabbles caused by two factors, must be quickly resolved. Betrayal of the south with the plan to retain power in the north after eight years of another notherner and the choice of the VP candidate, Governor Okowa, against popular expectation who is Governor Wike.
PDP is the most organised and stable political party in Nigeria since 1999. It has structure across the country and its candidate is a man with wide reach, network across the country, political sagacity and warchest to prosecute a presidential election but for the flaws in that ticket. His prowess was exhibited in 2019 where the party had 11,262,978 (41%) votes. Ofcourse, with Peter Obi on that ticket and unity within the party. That’s an illusion now. Things have since changed. The highlighted factors have created division in the party rank. They need to close rank to get any meaningful result. Atiku will be banking on northern votes, which he will contend with two others; Kwakwanso and Tinubu.
Apart from the popular Kwakwansiya movement in the north majorly, I cannot see anywhere else NNPP is making waves around the country. May be Kwakwanso have another game plan but, his followership is not even as pronounced as that of Obi, who similarly lacks adequate national political structure to deliver a pan-Nigeria electoral victory. The best chance he had was to have merged or formed alliance with Obi, but he was not ready to be vice to anyone.
The party and the candidate to beat in the 2023 elections are APC and Tinubu. Right now, he is the strongest contender. The party is at advantage being the ruling party. It also has the highest number of state governors and lawmakers at the national and state assemblies. Also government appointees across the country. These are party stalwarts and footsoldiers who are expected to work for their party and its candidate, but winning won’t be a piece of cake. They need to work hard.
The Yorubas are the most sophisticated voters who vote based on their convictions most times, irrespective of the region from where the presidential candidate comes. This is why we still see many Yorubas who are “Obidients” and championing the cause of Peter Obi to become the next president despite having their son, Tinubu, as the candidate of the ruling party, the best chance for the real progressives from the region to get to power. It will be an abomination for Ohaneze Ndigbo leadership to do what a leader of Afenifere, Pa Adebanjo, did few days ago, by declaring support for Peter Obi, against their own son’s and region’s political interest. Well, I can’t say he spoke for the Yorubas. “Omo eni ko ni sedi bebere kafileke sidi omo elomiran”. He possibly spoke for himself.
With five governors from his home region, Tinubu should be able to sweep the votes in his Southwest with a landslide. One governor in southsouth and two in Southeast, whose vote contributions will likely be minimal. There are twelve APC states in the north, particularly the high votes turning “KKK” (Kaduna, Kano, Katsina) states and Borno, if the APC governors, leaders and members in the north work hard enough, and President Buhari truly gets involved, APC will win massively from the north. It is only reasonable that they do so to maintain their party at the centre. Or will anyone of them have the leverages they enjoy now as the ruling party if they betray their own and surreptitiously support opposition party for tribal reason? I doubt so because they will be the bigger losers for it. And I know politicians don’t like to be losers.
The aggregate of these votes from North and south will give APC the edge to win. It may not be a landslide but enough to form a government and avoid a rerun. I predict that Labour Party could come second if all these braggadocio on social media can translate to votes. But, it will still not be enough to defeat APC. My fear then is a repeat of post 2011 presidential election. The “OBIdients” will be so shocked and rattled. They will feel disgruntled so much that conflagration could erupt if their anger transmutes to taking negative actions. God forbid.
Another sad reoccurrence that could happen is for the presidential candidate who just lost the election to abandon the party and not use his popularity to drive the votes at the state level elections, thereby making the party to lose out completely. This was the fate that befell CPC in 2011. General Buhari was not bothered about the remaining elections after he lost, thereby dampened the enthusiasms of his cult-followers. This led to losing all the state elections where he won at the presidential, to the ruling party. Nasarrawa state was won by the Tanko Al-Makura, on his personal efforts riding Buhari wave but all other states were lost. I hope that won’t happen to Labour Party but I am seeing the traces.
All parties and candidates should call their supporters to order. Elections are like games. You lose some, you win some. No one should believe they must win at all cost and that no other person or party has right to win, making it do-or-die. Life has two sides. The parties, candidates and their supporters should know and prepare for this. No one should intimidate or threaten others because of any candidate. It does not worth it. Discussions should be centered on issues bothering the country, rather than attacks and abuses.
May God continue to protect us and guide us aright.
God Bless Nigeria.
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